feat(eval): add standard error to swebench summarize outputs (#5700)

Co-authored-by: openhands <openhands@all-hands.dev>

evaluation/benchmarks/swe_bench/scripts/eval/summarize_outputs.py

@@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ import os
 from collections import Counter
 
 import pandas as pd
+import random
+import numpy as np
 
 from openhands.events.serialization import event_from_dict
 from openhands.events.utils import get_pairs_from_events
@@ -18,6 +20,18 @@ ERROR_KEYWORDS = [
 ]
 
 
+def get_bootstrap_accuracy_error_bars(values: float | int | bool, num_samples: int = 1000, p_value=0.05) -> tuple[float, float]:
+    sorted_vals = np.sort(
+        [
+            np.mean(random.sample(values, len(values) // 2))
+            for _ in range(num_samples)
+        ]
+    )
+    bottom_idx = int(num_samples * p_value / 2)
+    top_idx = int(num_samples * (1.0 - p_value / 2))
+    return (sorted_vals[bottom_idx], sorted_vals[top_idx])
+
+
 def process_file(file_path):
     with open(file_path, 'r') as file:
         lines = file.readlines()
@@ -26,6 +40,7 @@ def process_file(file_path):
     num_error_lines = 0
     num_agent_stuck_in_loop = 0
     num_resolved = 0
+    resolved_arr = []
     num_empty_patch = 0
     num_unfinished_runs = 0
     error_counter = Counter()
@@ -74,6 +89,9 @@ def process_file(file_path):
         resolved = report.get('resolved', False)
         if resolved:
             num_resolved += 1
+            resolved_arr.append(1)
+        else:
+            resolved_arr.append(0)
 
         # Error
         error = _d.get('error', None)
@@ -100,6 +118,7 @@ def process_file(file_path):
         'resolved': {
             'count': num_resolved,
             'percentage': (num_resolved / num_lines * 100) if num_lines > 0 else 0,
+            'ci': tuple(x * 100 for x in get_bootstrap_accuracy_error_bars(resolved_arr)),
         },
         'empty_patches': {
             'count': num_empty_patch,
@@ -174,6 +193,7 @@ def aggregate_directory(input_path) -> pd.DataFrame:
     )
 
     df['resolve_rate'] = df['resolved'].apply(lambda x: x['percentage'])
+    df['resolve_rate_ci'] = df['resolved'].apply(lambda x: x['ci'])
     df['empty_patch_rate'] = df['empty_patches'].apply(lambda x: x['percentage'])
     df['unfinished_rate'] = df['unfinished_runs'].apply(lambda x: x['percentage'])
     df['avg_turns'] = df['statistics'].apply(lambda x: x['avg_turns'])
@@ -242,7 +262,7 @@ if __name__ == '__main__':
             # Print detailed results for single file
             print(f'\nResults for {args.input_path}:')
             print(
-                f"Number of resolved: {result['resolved']['count']} / {result['total_instances']} ({result['resolved']['percentage']:.2f}%)"
+                f"Number of resolved: {result['resolved']['count']} / {result['total_instances']} ({result['resolved']['percentage']:.2f}% [{result['resolved']['ci'][0]:.2f}%, {result['resolved']['ci'][1]:.2f}%])"
             )
             print(
                 f"Number of empty patch: {result['empty_patches']['count']} / {result['total_instances']} ({result['empty_patches']['percentage']:.2f}%)"